Every call dated.
Every result public.
Kraftatlas publishes its spread-risk forecasts before gate closure and scores them in the open — against the market's own mark, and against what delivery actually paid. This page is the record.
How the record works.
Four rules, no exceptions. They are what make a track record worth anything — and what a closed vendor can't offer without repricing their business.
Published pre-gate
Every forecast is timestamped and locked before day-ahead gate closure. No hindsight, ever.
Immutable
Each day's forecast is hashed and write-once. Once published it cannot be edited — including by us.
Never back-filled
The record starts when it starts. Missing days stay missing; history is never reconstructed.
Calibration shown
Every call ships with its coverage record — how often our ranges actually contained reality.
Monthly windows — our value vs the market vs reality.
For each delivery month and zone we publish a fair value before the window and freeze the market's mark on the same date. Then delivery decides. One row per zone per month, forever — which is exactly why the first one waits until the method is worth committing to permanently.
| Delivery month | Zone | Our fair value | Market mark | Realized avg | Closer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WORK IN PROGRESS The daily forecast record has been accruing since 17 Jul 2026. The monthly scoreboard opens when the method is ready to be judged — not on a date we picked in advance. First zones on the board: SE3 · SE4 · FI, where the open interest is. | |||||
Monthly EPAD fair value — rich or cheap, in the open.
EPADs are how Nordic zone risk is actually hedged. The scored product is a calibrated fair value for each monthly delivery window, published against the market's mark before the window opens.
Fair value
A calibrated distribution for the delivery-window average — not a point guess. The median is the headline; the band is the honesty.
Rich / cheap
Our value versus the market's mark, dated before the window. The scoreboard settles who was right — month after month.
Tail-day alerts
When spread risk spikes, the alert names the constraints driving it — the days a hedge pays for itself.
Judge us on the record,
not on the pitch.
Open the live map today — free, no sales call — and watch the scoreboard fill in, one permanent row at a time.